Unaudited mid-month fuel price data published by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to the possibility of sizeable increases in petrol prices for South Africa in May, whereas diesel prices are looking to come down by a noticeable margin.
The data takes into account fluctuations in the rand/US dollar exchange rate in addition to movements in international petroleum products prices between the period of 31 March to 12 April 2023.
According to the CEF’s latest numbers, the expected fuel price changes taking effect in May are as follows:
- Petrol 93 – Increase of 84 cents a litre
- Petrol 95 – Increase of 76 cents a litre
- Diesel 0.05% – Decrease of 42 cents a litre
- Diesel 0.005% – Decrease of 25 cents a litre
It must be noted that these anticipated adjustments are not the official changes that are coming on the first Wednesday of next month, as they do not account for potential alterations in margins, levies, or zone differentials.
What affects South African fuel prices
The expected fuel price changes for May largely come off the back of a rise in international petroleum prices.
On 31 March, the international cost of petrol was approximately R11.47/litre, rising sharply to around R12.28/litre 12 days later.
This contributed to an under-recovery, i.e. price increase, of R1.00/litre to petrol 93 and 92c/litre to petrol 95.
In contrast, the international cost of diesel barely rose from its rate of roughly R10.94/litre on 31 March to R11.03/litre on 12 April.
This change in pace led to an over-recovery, i.e. price decrease, of 26c/litre for diesel 0.05% and 9c/litre for diesel 0.005%.
The average rand/US dollar exchange rate also brought welcome contributions to the expected fuel price changes in May.
On 31 March, the rand traded around R17.80 to the dollar, moving up to R18.09 per dollar by 12 April, however, this is still far lower than the R18.30/dollar that it sat at for most of March.
This resulted in an over-recovery of 16c/litre for all grades of both petrol and diesel.
