(Photo: Natsuki via Unsplash)
South Africans have to steel themselves for a dark winter: the load shedding situation in the country is probably not going to improve soon.
In addition to the announcement that phase 6 load shedding applies indefinitely, the Center for Risk Analysis (CRA) says South Africans should expect to spend 43 weeks of this year, or 83% of it, in phase 4 or 5 load shedding.
“Since the beginning of 2023, there has only been a single 24-hour period without load shedding,” says the CRA.
“Eskom’s latest energy outlook for the coming year, including its weekly system status report, indicates that this is likely to continue as the power supplier has not yet been able to meet demand for power for one week (until at least March 2023) this year.”
Between January and March this year, there was still an electricity deficit of more than 2,000 MW every week. According to Eskom’s own forecasts, an average of 16,500 MW will be unavailable each week throughout the year due to unplanned breakdowns and interruptions.
Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister of Electricity, this week even warned South Africans about the possibility of even higher load-shedding phases – moreover with reference to an unprecedented phase 10.
This says Dr. However, Dirk Hermann, managing director of Solidarity, is unlikely, even though the system is under tremendous pressure. Hermann also indicated that even phase 8 should not be feared at this stage, unless something drastic changes in the system.
However, Nicky Weimar, chief economist at Nedbank, and JP Landman, an independent political and trend analyst, said last week that they believe the risk that the power grid could collapse has definitely increased.
According to the CRA, the government is also not exactly taking control of the power crisis.
“With little more than a year to go before the 2024 elections, the growing sense of urgency within government to tackle the energy crisis is becoming increasingly palpable.
“Whether the measures taken so far have been effective is, however, debatable. The government declared a national state of calamity on 9 February in response to the electricity crisis, but suspended it again last week with nothing to show for it,” says the centre. On March 31, the minister of finance, Enoch Godongwana, also waived Eskom for a period of three years from the requirement to disclose irregular, fruitless and wasteful expenses in its annual financial statements. This exemption was also suspended after great public pressure, although Godongwana indicated that it could be reinstated.
“This back-and-forth creates the impression of aimless action, rather than purposeful action. This can contribute to the breach of trust between citizens and the government, which puts the ruling ANC party under greater electoral pressure in 2024.”
