John Steenhuisen shortly after he was re-elected as leader of the DA. (Photo: DA/Twitter)
The DA’s leadership does not reflect the demographics of the country – but this can also be said of the ANC – and although it may seem insensitive, there are many complexities hidden behind the official opposition’s leadership. Prof. Ntsikelelo Breakfast, a political analyst at Nelson Mandela University, says criticism that the DA’s leadership is not representative enough does not mean that the party has not already made great progress in promoting diversity within its own ranks.
Breakfast says senior party leaders are the face of the party and ill-considered statements have cost the DA dearly in the past. Among other things, he refers to former DA leader Mmusi Maimane, now leader of Build One South Africa, whose statements at the time made many voters decide to find their political salvation elsewhere.
“Leadership is not an event, it is a process,” says Breakfast about the official opposition’s leadership composition.
He believes that some emerging black leaders may be “overambitious” and, instead of immediately aiming for the top positions, must first go through a growth and preparation process.
“When these leaders lose, they are embarrassed and go looking for greener pastures elsewhere.”
This once again means a loss to a black leader. Breakfast says that when voters do not see “one of their own” in the leadership structure, it may also deter them from giving their support to a party.
I am amazed how the DA leaders don’t notice how they are losing some of their best politically talented blacks. Unbelievable! The ship will sink. Watch the space.
— Tito Mboweni (@tito_mboweni) April 2, 2023
External factors also play a role
However, much more has an influence than just the face on an election poster.
Prof. Theo Venter, political analyst attached to the University of Johannesburg, says voter behavior does not always have to do with the promises made by a particular political party, but also a lot with what the ruling party does, or doesn’t do. Issues such as load shedding and corruption disappoint voters and leave them looking for alternatives.
“On top of what the DA leaders say, there are also external factors that play a role; it is sometimes many leaders’ salvation,” he says. “I think there are many more factors than just the leadership.
“One of the things people look at is whether there is renewal. Is there improvement? Is there an achievable promise? Is there anything to look forward to?”
He says the DA’s proposed political agreement – which DA leader John Steenhuisen calls the “moonshot pact” – is an important indicator of change before the election. This indicates intended cooperation – before the election – and means voters know from the outset where they stand.
“This is the advantage of an agreement, or pact. Whether you vote for the IVP, or the DA or the FF Plus, your vote goes for one alliance. This actually makes it easier, because you can still say you are a seasoned DA or FF Plus member who does not abandon your principles and still votes for the party you like – but with a voice that contributes to a larger whole .”
In such an agreement, it is important that political parties discuss the agreement among themselves and ask themselves where growth potential lies. “
“Because once a voter has cast his vote once, it is difficult to win that vote back.
“There will be a limited overflow of members. This is why it is so important for political parties within the pact that their leaders and leadership almost sing from the same psalm book; that they don’t talk about each other or get rid of contradictions or do reckless things that could jeopardize the relationship,” says Venter.
He says political parties within such a proposed agreement should not surprise each other and if there are substantial differences – and there can and should be – they must be handled properly.
Election in 2024
Delegates at the DA’s just concluded congress in Gauteng. (Photo: DA/Twitter)
Breakfast says that one-party dominance is a thing of the past, but the EFF and ANC are ideologically very close to each other, which makes them a threat to the DA. It can also create space for a joining of forces between the two parties.
“There is no political party that can unseat the ANC on its own. The DA must position itself strategically and if it does help kick out the ANC, it must be humble about it. Sometimes the party acts like outright winners.”
The ACDP has already said it will not enter into any coalition agreement before the 2024 elections. “The ACDP has always been open to discussions with political parties that have the best interests of all South Africans at heart, that will prioritize service delivery and not just pay lip service to dealing with crime and corruption. In these discussions we are guided by our constitution, policy, vision and manifesto,” says Wayne Thring, an ACDP MP and the party’s deputy president.
Thring warns that any one-shot political process, which fails to be inclusive and does not consult properly with other parties – and one where a single party positions itself as superior to the rest – will encounter its moses.
Venter’s “very cautious” expectation is that the ANC on its own has the ability to mobilize between 46% and 50% of support in the national election on its own. “What they need is one or two small parties to carry them over the threshold. I foresee big problems for the ANC in 2029. Then Cyril Ramaphosa is gone – he may go before that time – but then he is definitely gone.
“Do the leaders who come after him have the ability to manage the misery the ANC has plunged the country into?”
Should a cooperation agreement materialize between opposition parties, they could possibly attract between 30% and 35% of the support, is Venter’s expectation. This could mean that the two largest provinces are no longer under ANC control after next year – which means big challenges for the ANC.
“People are very discouraged about what is happening with load shedding, rising living costs, fuel prices, poor service delivery… It is the job of political parties to get people excited to vote. It is their job to convince people to do things once anders to do.
“In such a pact, the party with the strongest structures is that of the DA. The party has an excellent organizational machine. If he also makes it available to other parties who work together, things get even better.”
